東北地方における水田転作と地域農業構造との関連 Quantitative Analysis of the Relation between Paddy Field Acreage Allotment and Regional Structure in the Tohoku District, Japan
本稿では, 東北地方における水田転作の対応方式とこれを規定する地域の農業生産構造との関連について, 正準相関分析を用いて分析を試みた。<br>正準得点に固有値をかけて重み付けを行い, 市町村の類型化をした結果, 8タイプに分けることができた。(1) 果樹作地帯の果樹作拡大, 強化指向型, (2) 肉牛, 乳牛飼育地帯の飼料作物対応型, (3) 水稲作への執着が強い水田地帯の他用途利用米対応型, (4) 専業農家率が高い畑作地帯の永年性作物対応型, (5) 大規加模水稲作地帯の集団転作及び麦対応型, (6) 小規模水稲作地帯の個別転作対応型, (7) 市部及びその周辺の野菜産地の野菜作強化, 管理預託対応型, (8) 野菜に重点があるものの転作野菜率が低い管理預託対応型。<br>転作に対する取り組みが, 地域に適した作物, 転作対応方式を選定しようとする姿勢が表れている。
The policy of reducing the acreage allotted to rice cultivation instituted in 1970 has been consistently maintained in Japan. The Tohoku District, where paddy-field cultivation is significant, is chosen as the subject of this paper. The results of the acreage allotment policy with its consequent modified cultivation is detailed individually for cities, towns, and villages as of 1986. Its correlation with the structure of agriculture in the region is also clarified. Finally, characteristic patterns in cities, towns, and villages are obtained by using canonical scores.<br>Acreage subjected to modified cultivation in the Tohoku District had increased from 68, 000ha as of 1978 to 108, 000ha 1981, and then fluctuated more or less around 100, 000ha till 1986. In 1986, the target year of the program, acreage allotted to forage crops, soy beans, and vegetables had the greatest share at over 70% of total modified cultivation.<br>Individual analysis on cities, towns, and villages is performed, except for Ogata village, and canonical correlation analysis is applied to determine the mutual correlation between 11 dependent variables regarding the modified cultivation and 38 explanatory variables regarding regional agriculture. As a result, 10 canonical variables are sampled. Canonical loading of an absolute value of over 0.4 is adopted for variable interpretation. 5 canonical variables and their distribution petterns based on the canonical score are also obtained. The canonical scores are then calculated and multiplied by eigen value for weighting in order to obtain characteristic patterns for cities, towns, and villages.<br>Eight characteristic patterns are found as a result (Fig. 8). Some of the representative patterns are as follows; (1B) Extended and reinforced pattern of pomiculture in the fruit growing region; (1A) Accommodating pattern of forage crops in the area of beef cattle breeding and dairy farms; (2A) Accommmodating pattern of rice for various purposes in the paddy region where attachment to paddy-field cultivation is still strong.