東北地方における水田転作と地域農業構造との関連

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  • Quantitative Analysis of the Relation between Paddy Field Acreage Allotment and Regional Structure in the Tohoku District, Japan.
  • トウホク チホウ ニ オケル スイデンテンサク ト チイキ ノウギョウ コウゾ

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The policy of reducing the acreage allotted to rice cultivation instituted in 1970 has been consistently maintained in Japan. The Tohoku District, where paddy-field cultivation is significant, is chosen as the subject of this paper. The results of the acreage allotment policy with its consequent modified cultivation is detailed individually for cities, towns, and villages as of 1986. Its correlation with the structure of agriculture in the region is also clarified. Finally, characteristic patterns in cities, towns, and villages are obtained by using canonical scores.<br>Acreage subjected to modified cultivation in the Tohoku District had increased from 68, 000ha as of 1978 to 108, 000ha 1981, and then fluctuated more or less around 100, 000ha till 1986. In 1986, the target year of the program, acreage allotted to forage crops, soy beans, and vegetables had the greatest share at over 70% of total modified cultivation.<br>Individual analysis on cities, towns, and villages is performed, except for Ogata village, and canonical correlation analysis is applied to determine the mutual correlation between 11 dependent variables regarding the modified cultivation and 38 explanatory variables regarding regional agriculture. As a result, 10 canonical variables are sampled. Canonical loading of an absolute value of over 0.4 is adopted for variable interpretation. 5 canonical variables and their distribution petterns based on the canonical score are also obtained. The canonical scores are then calculated and multiplied by eigen value for weighting in order to obtain characteristic patterns for cities, towns, and villages.<br>Eight characteristic patterns are found as a result (Fig. 8). Some of the representative patterns are as follows; (1B) Extended and reinforced pattern of pomiculture in the fruit growing region; (1A) Accommodating pattern of forage crops in the area of beef cattle breeding and dairy farms; (2A) Accommmodating pattern of rice for various purposes in the paddy region where attachment to paddy-field cultivation is still strong.

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