通販業における需要予測支援のためのエキスパートシステムの開発と評価

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  • Development and Evaluation of Expert System for Sales Forecast in Mail Order Business
  • ツウハンギョウ ニ オケル ジュヨウ ヨソク シエン ノ タメ ノ エキスパー

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An expert system which supports analysis of customers' data for sales forecast with multiple regression analysis is proposed and is evaluated. Traditionally, a stepwise method by computer which improves an intermediate regression equation step by step, or an interactive method by human experts which omits some intermediate calculations just to suit the occasion has been used. In case features of the data are changed by market trends and commercial media, it is difficult to get an enough result in practical time by these methods. In order to solve the above problem, an analysis method is proposed. This method uses the following two steps in conjunction. In the first step, a rule-base of an expert system which is constructed by eliciting expert analysts' knowledge gets an intermediate regression equation by checking statistical data calculated by a multiple regression analysis tool. And in the second step, expert analysts improve the equation interactively. Finally, effects of the proposed method is clarified in application to a deriving process of sales forecast equation for apparel goods.

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