Method for Scenario Development Using Shadow Prices as Non-Cost Decision Criteria
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- Takase Kae
- The Energy Data and Modelling Center, the Institute of Energy Economics
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- Fujii Yasumasa
- Yokohama National University
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- Kaya Yoichi
- Keio University
Bibliographic Information
- Other Title
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- コスト以外の燃料選択基準をシャドウプライスとして評価するエネルギーシナリオ構築手法
- コスト イガイ ノ ネンリョウ センタク キジュン オ シャドウプライス ト
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Abstract
A method is proposed for developing future global energy scenarios. Among various types of energy models those of optimization type seem the most appropriate to envisage energy scenrios under physical, economic and political constraints, of which the most serious are certainly CO2 emission reduction targets such as those agreed at COP3 in 1997. One of disadvantages of these models, however, is the possible gap between the criterion adopted in the models and those, although implicitly, used in the real world. Because of this gap the resultant scenarios produced by the models very often differ far from reality. The method proposed in this paper is to derive informations on differences between reality and scenarios produced by the model from shadow prices obtained from application of optimization to the past with the constraints on the regional energy supplies, and then to modify the cost data of the model with these shadow prices so as to reflect reality of the resultant scenarios. Numerical analysis employing DNE21 model developed by the authors demonstrates usefulness of the proposed method.
Journal
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- IEEJ Transactions on Electronics, Information and Systems
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IEEJ Transactions on Electronics, Information and Systems 118 (10), 1438-1444, 1998-10-01
The Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan
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Details 詳細情報について
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- CRID
- 1390282679583770624
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- NII Article ID
- 130006843012
- 10002815140
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- NII Book ID
- AN10065950
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- ISSN
- 13488155
- 03854221
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- NDL BIB ID
- 4565917
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- Data Source
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- JaLC
- NDL
- Crossref
- CiNii Articles
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- Abstract License Flag
- Disallowed