地震のスケーリング則に基づいた大地震時の強震動予測 : 統計的波形合成法による予測

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  • PREDICTION OF STRONG GROUND MOTION BASED ON SCALING LAW OF EARTHQUAKE : By stochastic synthesis method
  • ジシン ノ スケーリングソク ニ モトズイタ ダイジシンジ ノ キョウシンドウ

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In order to predict more practically strong ground motion, it is important to study how to use a semi-empirical method in case of having no oppropriate observation records for actual small-events as empirical Green's functions. We propose a prediction procedure using artificially simulated small ground motions as substitute for the actual motions. First, we simulate small-event motion by means of stochastic simulation method proposed by Boore (1983) in considering pass effects such as attenuation, and broadening of waveform envelope empirically in the objective region. Finally, we attempt to predict the strong ground motion due to a future large earthquake (M7, Δ=13 km) using the same summation procedure as the empirical Green's function method. We obtained the results that the characteristics of the synthetic motion using M5 motion were in good agreement with those by the empirical Green's function method.

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