Modeling Decision Analysis for Mitigating Natural Disaster Risks

• TAMURA Hiroyuki

  Graduate School of Engineering Science, Osaka University

• YAMAMOTO Kouji

  Graduate School of Engineering Science, Osaka University

• AKAZAWA Katsuhiro

  Graduate School of Engineering Science, Osaka University

• TAJI Kouichi

  Graduate School of Engineering Science, Osaka University

Bibliographic Information

Other Title

• 自然災害リスクの軽減を目的とした意思決定分析のモデル化
• シゼン サイガイ リスク ノ ケイゲン オ モクテキ ト シタ イシ ケッテイ ブンセキ ノ モデルカ

Abstract

In this paper, we show that a value function under risk is useful to model low probability and high consequence damage events like an earthquake for which expected utility theory is inadequate. Firstly, we assume alternatives to improve buildings, some scenarios of earthquakes, costs to improve buildings, probability of death and injury and cost of restoring building's damage for each scenario. Then, we show that the value function under risk is an appropriate approach to model and analyze decision making process with low probability and high consequence events.

Journal

• Transactions of the Institute of Systems, Control and Information Engineers

  Transactions of the Institute of Systems, Control and Information Engineers 13 (6), 268-275, 2000

  THE INSTITUTE OF SYSTEMS, CONTROL AND INFORMATION ENGINEERS (ISCIE)

Keywords

• decision analysis
• utility theory
• minimization of disaster risks
• low probability high consequence events
• planning earthquake safety

Details

• CRID: 1390001205165187328
• NII Article ID: 10004473131
• NII Book ID: AN1013280X
• DOI: 10.5687/iscie.13.6_268
• ISSN: 2185811X
• ISSN: 13425668
• NDL BIB ID: 5370153
• Web Site: https://ndlsearch.ndl.go.jp/books/R000000004-I5370153
• Data Source:
  • JaLC
  • NDL
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
• Abstract License Flag: Disallowed