PREDICTION OF HOUSEHOLD TYPE DISTRIBUTION IN URBAN AREA

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  • 小地区単位における詳細属性別世帯数の予測
  • ショウチク タンイ ニ オケル ショウサイ ゾクセイ ベツ セタイスウ ノ ヨソク

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Abstract

This paper proposes a prediction method of household type distribution by small zone in a city. This method was applied to Sendai city. Number of household by family type and by age of the head of family is defined as the household characteristics of a zone. The historical changes for five years of the household characteristics by prefectures were successfully estimated using Frater method. Major findings of this study are as follows: 1) The proposed method was confirmed to have good accuracy. 2) This method improved shortages of existing methods, which can be applicable to small districts, deals with detailed classification of household, and have high availability and interpolation of variables for policy making. 3) Aged family will increase in the urban center and young people will increase in surrounding area. Families with some kids or children will increase in outskirt of those area.

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