AN ANALYSIS OF EVALUATION METHODS OF ACCEPTABLE RISK FOR EARTHQUAKE DISASTERS ADOPTING A DEATH TOLL AS AN INDEX

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  • 死亡者数を指標とした地震災害に対する許容リスクの設定に関する考察
  • シボウシャスウ オ シヒョウ ト シタ ジシン サイガイ ニ タイスル キョヨウ リスク ノ セッテイ ニ カンスル コウサツ

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Abstract

This paper proposes and analyzes an approach to decide the level of acceptable risk for earthquake disasters. The proposed way to decide the level of acceptable risk for national land plannning is estimation of risk of natural desasters such as earthquake, tsunami and flood from the viewpoint of the relation between a death toll and a return period, and decision of upper limit of risk management. Then, the decision of acceptable risk is converted into the requirement for design earthquake of level 2, assuming that the design concept of river facilities is decided the acceptable risk for earthquake disasters. Furthermore, the catalogue of earthquakes are compared with the requirement for design earthquake of level 2 at the chief cirties of Japan.

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