近畿三角帯における活断層調査-主要活断層の活動履歴と地震危険度- Active Fault Investigation in the Kinki Triangle:Paleoseismicity and Earthquake Potential of Major Aactive Faults

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兵庫県南部地震以降,近畿三角帯において地質調査所が調査を行った25の活断層を,松田(1990)の基準に基づいて18の起震断層に再編した.また,新たに設けた基準により,各起震断層を1~5つの活動セグメントに区分した.<br>活動履歴調査により明らかにされた各活動セグメントの古地震イベントと歴史地震との対応を検討した結果,1586年天正地震,1596年伏見地震などのいくつかの大規模な歴史地震は複数の活動セグメントおよび複数の起震断層の連動により引き起こされた可能性が高いことが判明した.<br>また,合計31の活動セグメントの地震危険度を経過時間率と地震発生確率を用いて評価した.その結果,琵琶湖西岸断層饗庭野セグメントと中央構造線和泉-金剛断層根来セグメントは,ほかの活動セグメントよりも地震危険度が高いと判断された.<br>このような地震危険度の評価結果と分布箇所の社会的重要性から,今後さらに詳細な調査を行うべき起震断層として,琵琶湖西岸断層,中央構造線四国断層,同和泉-金剛断層,および上町断層があげられる.

After the 1995 Kobe (Hyogoken-Nanbu) earthquake, the Geological Survey of Japan began conducting systematic investigation of major active faults in the Kinki Triangle. We had studied 25 active faults and fault systems by the end of the 1998 fiscal year. These faults and fault systems were rearranged into 18 seismogenic faults based on the criteria proposed by Matsuda (1990). We then divided each seismogenic fault into 1 to 5 behavioral segments, using differences in rupture history, 2-km separation between adjoining faults, and a value of 20, 000×displacement per event as criteria for segmentation.<br>We attempted to correlate the paleoearthquake events revealed at each behavioral segment with historical earthquakes. The correlation has led to the conclusion that several disastrous earthquakes, such as the 1586 Tensho and 1596 Fushimi earthquakes, were produced by a multiple rupture of several behavioral segments and seismogenic faults. This shows the need to take multiple rupturing and fault interaction into consideration in forecasting future earthquakes.<br>The earthquake potential of each segment was assessed on the basis of elapsed time ratio and earthquake probability in the future. The 100-year earthquake probability of the 24-km-long Aibano segment on the west coast of Lake Biwa is estimated at 12 to 38%. The maximum 100-year earthquake probabilities of the Negoro and Kongo segments in Kii Peninsula are estimated to be 30% and 17%, respectively. The 44-km-long Uemachi segment traversing Osaka City has about a 5% earthquake probability in the 21st century at maximum. We anticipate that these behavioral segments will be subjected to further investigation in order to refine the assessments of their earthquake potential.

収録刊行物

  • 第四紀研究

    第四紀研究 39(4), 289-301, 2000-08-01

    Japan Association for Quaternary Research

参考文献:  58件中 1-58件 を表示

被引用文献:  2件中 1-2件 を表示

各種コード

  • NII論文ID(NAID)
    10004720490
  • NII書誌ID(NCID)
    AN0034136X
  • 本文言語コード
    JPN
  • 資料種別
    ART
  • ISSN
    04182642
  • NDL 記事登録ID
    5427588
  • NDL 雑誌分類
    ZM49(科学技術--地球科学--地質)
  • NDL 請求記号
    Z15-67
  • データ提供元
    CJP書誌  CJP引用  NDL  J-STAGE 
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