近畿三角帯における活断層調査　　主要活断層の活動履歴と地震危険度

• 地質調査所活断層研究グループ

書誌事項

タイトル別名

• Active Fault Investigation in the Kinki Triangle. Paleoseismicity and Earthquake Potential of Major Active Faults.
• キンキ サン カクタイ ニ オケル カツダンソウ チョウサ シュヨウカツダンソウ ノ カツドウ リレキ ト ジシン キケンド
• Paleoseismicity and Earthquake Potential of Major Active Faults
• 主要活断層の活動履歴と地震危険度

抄録

After the 1995 Kobe (Hyogoken-Nanbu) earthquake, the Geological Survey of Japan began conducting systematic investigation of major active faults in the Kinki Triangle. We had studied 25 active faults and fault systems by the end of the 1998 fiscal year. These faults and fault systems were rearranged into 18 seismogenic faults based on the criteria proposed by Matsuda (1990). We then divided each seismogenic fault into 1 to 5 behavioral segments, using differences in rupture history, 2-km separation between adjoining faults, and a value of 20, 000×displacement per event as criteria for segmentation.<br>We attempted to correlate the paleoearthquake events revealed at each behavioral segment with historical earthquakes. The correlation has led to the conclusion that several disastrous earthquakes, such as the 1586 Tensho and 1596 Fushimi earthquakes, were produced by a multiple rupture of several behavioral segments and seismogenic faults. This shows the need to take multiple rupturing and fault interaction into consideration in forecasting future earthquakes.<br>The earthquake potential of each segment was assessed on the basis of elapsed time ratio and earthquake probability in the future. The 100-year earthquake probability of the 24-km-long Aibano segment on the west coast of Lake Biwa is estimated at 12 to 38%. The maximum 100-year earthquake probabilities of the Negoro and Kongo segments in Kii Peninsula are estimated to be 30% and 17%, respectively. The 44-km-long Uemachi segment traversing Osaka City has about a 5% earthquake probability in the 21st century at maximum. We anticipate that these behavioral segments will be subjected to further investigation in order to refine the assessments of their earthquake potential.

収録刊行物

• 第四紀研究

  第四紀研究 39 (4), 289-301, 2000

  日本第四紀学会

キーワード

• 活断層
• 古地震
• 地震危険度
• 確率評価
• 近畿三角帯

詳細情報

• CRID: 1390282681473714432
• NII論文ID: 10004720490
• NII論文ID: 10013066726
• NII書誌ID: AN0034136X
• DOI: 10.4116/jaqua.39.289
• ISSN: 18818129
• ISSN: 04182642
• NDL書誌ID: 5427588
• Web Site: https://ndlsearch.ndl.go.jp/books/R000000004-I5427588
• 本文言語コード: ja
• データソース種別:
  • JaLC
  • NDL
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
• 抄録ライセンスフラグ: 使用不可