Evaluation of Active Faults for Long-term Prediction of Earthquakes.

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  • 活断層の長期評価と問題点　　数百年以内という地震予測は無意味か
  • カツダンソウ ノ チョウキ ヒョウカ ト モンダイテン スウヒャクネン イナイ ト イウ ジシン ヨソク ワ ムイミ カ
  • 数百年以内という地震予測は無意味か

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Abstract

The Japanese Government recently publicized long-term predictions of earthquakes along three major faults in central Japan, based on their history in the late Quaternary. The predictions include the information on location, magnitude, and time of earthquakes and the probability of occurrence during next 30 years or 100 years.<br>However, the information little affected the social community, probably because of the roughness of the estimation of the time that the earthquake will occur within a few hundred years from now. If these predictions are neglected, as they were in the case of Kobe prior to 1995, we may again have great disasters when predicted but not-accepted great earthquakes occur.

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