Short-Term Forecasting of Landings of Ocellate Puffer Takifugu rubripes Migrating around a Spawning Area in the Inland Sea of Japan

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  • Short-Term Forecasting of Landings of Ocellate Puffer <i>Takifugu rubripes</i> Migrating around a Spawning Area in the Inland Sea of Japan
  • Short Term Forecasting of Landings of O

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In this paper we use regression analysis to forecast the abundance of mature ocellate puffer Takifugu rubripes recruits migrating into a spawning area in the Inland Sea of Japan. Firstly, we describe the age-structure of ocellate puffer and characteristics of landings byhandline and longline fisheries in the Iyo-nada and Bungo Strait areas. In these areas the ocellate pufferare mainly caught at O-or 1-year-old. Fluctuations in landings in these areas are largely attributable to the year-class strength and this is further seen in the landings around the spawning area of mature fish. Next, the yearly fluctuations of the largely immature ocellate puffer landings in the Iyo-nada and Bungo Strait areas were compared to those of landings of mature fish around the spawning area. The correlation coefficient peaked at 0.941 (P<0.001) for a time difference of 2 years between annual landings in the two areas from 1976 to 1993. As a result, it is interpreted that the variations of landings due to year-class strength in the Iyonada and Bungo Strait area are directly correlated to fluctuations in landings around the spawning area after 2 years. A predictive linear regression model described a regression equation of Y=0.420 (±0.0249 S. D.) X with Y-intercept of 0±26.47 S. D., where X and Y indicate landings in the Iyo-nada and Bungo Strait areas 2 years ago and landings in the setnet fishery around thespawning area, respectively. These findings strongly support the hypothesis that the same stock of ocellate puffer are found in both areas.

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