ロンドンにおけるバブル景気前後の人口移動変化-動作不順なエスカレータ?- Migration to and from Greater London:An Irregular Escalator?
1980年代末のバブル崩壊は首都ロンドンに最大の打撃を与えたにもかかわらず,ロンドンで人口流串の縮小と人口獲得がみられた.この一見不可解なイベントをNHSCRによる毎年の年齢別移動を観察し, Fielding (1992) の「エスカレータ地域モデル」を動的に拡張して次のように解釈した.社会上方移動の機会が最も豊富なロンドンは,好況期には全国から青年をかき集める一方で中年以上の世帯を郊外に流出せしめるが,不況になるとこの空間的・社会的移動が不活発になり,人口がロンドンに閉じこめられてしまう.そして若い世帯が多いロンドンでは自然増加によって人口規模が膨れあがってしまうのである.<br> 1990年代前半の不況の場合には住宅価格の急落が人口移動減少の最大要因であった.政策により民間賃貸住宅が希少なイギリスでは多くの移動に住宅の買替えが必要となる.住宅市場の停滞が住宅買替えを困難にしたのである.
After the collapse of the housing boom of the late 1980s, Greater London saw a contraction in net outflow and a revival in population growth, despite the recession hit the region more severely than anywhere else in the country. This was the outcome of reduced gross outflow (rather than increased gross inflow), suggesting that, during the period of falling house prices, owner-occupiers in London wishing to migrate faced greater difficulty in selling one property to buy another at the desired destination. Capital gain from a house seems to cover a substantial part of the relocation cost for owner-occupiers, and this is especially true for Britain where only limited housing in the private rented sector exists due to public policy. This adds to our knowledge of why mobility diminishes during recessionary periods since difficulty in realizing capital from a house inhibits owner-occupiers from migrating.<br> The dynamic application of Fielding's (1992) "escalator region" model to migration changes in Greater London during the boom shows that the escalator smoothly sends middle-aged and older people with their child (ren) to the suburbs while receiving young adults from all over the country; whereas during recession, the escalator became less effective and the population became trapped in the region. The concentration of young adults in Greater London means that the high birth rate necessitates some rate of net outflow to maintain the population size, but dysfunction in the escalator leads to positive growth in population. The aging of the population composition commences at the same time, since the population is unable to step off the escalator. Migration to and from Greater London has the role of conserving the regional demographics rather than otherwise.
- 地理学評論. Ser. A
地理学評論. Ser. A 73(1), 44-55, 2000-01-01
The Association of Japanese Geographers