水温を考慮しないモデルによる北日本の水稲発育予測について Prediction of Paddy Rice Development in Northern Japan by Models without Consideration of Water Temperature

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Water temperature (<i>T</i><sub>w</sub>) is known to have an effect on the developmental rate (<i>DVR</i>) of paddy rice. However, <i>T</i><sub>w</sub> is not employed as input data in most developmental models. Moreover, <i>DVR</i> is often modeled as a function of air temperature (<i>T</i><sub>a</sub>) alone for northern Japan. The purpose of this study is to determine the reason why accurate prediction using models without consideration of <i>T</i><sub>w</sub> is possible and to determine whether the models are valid even for cool years.<br>The results of the first experiment showed that soil temperature (<i>T</i><sub>s</sub>) affects <i>DVR</i> (<i>T</i><sub>s</sub> at a depth of 1 cm was measured instead of <i>T</i><sub>w</sub> in this study). In the second experiment, pot containers with equally raised rice seedlings were buried in nine paddy fields in the three prefectures of Aomori, Iwate and Miyagi. Rice growth, <i>T</i><sub>a</sub> and <i>T</i><sub>s</sub> in all of the fields were monitored. The following results were obtained.<br>(1) A correlation exists between <i>T</i><sub>a</sub> and <i>T</i><sub>s</sub>.<br>(2) Parameters for the five developmental models were determined. Accuracy of the simple EAAT-model, in which only air temperature is employed, is as good as that of other models. This is because the correlation between <i>T</i><sub>a</sub> and <i>T</i><sub>s</sub> is incorporated in the EAAT-model and <i>T</i><sub>s</sub> is implicitly estimated from <i>T</i><sub>a</sub>.<br>(3) The correlations between <i>T</i><sub>a</sub> and <i>T</i><sub>s</sub> in cool years with short periods of sunshine and in other years are not the same. This difference caused larger error in prediction in cool years such as 1993.<br>In conclusion, the EAAT-model can be used for northern Japan for years with normal weather conditions but not cool years with short periods of sunshine. Some method for adjusting the prediction by an existing model should be developed.

収録刊行物

  • 農業気象

    農業気象 60(1), 67-75, 2004-03-10

    養賢堂

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各種コード

  • NII論文ID(NAID)
    10012702487
  • NII書誌ID(NCID)
    AN00200732
  • 本文言語コード
    JPN
  • 資料種別
    ART
  • ISSN
    00218588
  • NDL 記事登録ID
    6895610
  • NDL 雑誌分類
    ZR7(科学技術--農林水産--農産)
  • NDL 請求記号
    Z18-388
  • データ提供元
    CJP書誌  NDL  IR  J-STAGE 
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