Modeling for a Smallpox-vaccination Policy against Possible Bioterrorism in Japan: The Impact of Long-lasting Vaccinal Immunity

• Nishiura Hiroshi

  Bangkok School of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University

• Tang I. Ming

  Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University Institute of Science & Technology for Research and Development, Mahidol University

抄録

BACKGROUND: There has been concern that variola virus might be held clandestinely elsewhere. Through constructing mathematical model based on the detailed epidemiologic data, we focused on simulating the various possible scenarios arising from a bioterrorist attack whereby smallpox virus was introduced into Japan, and sought to develop the most effective way of nationwide vaccination policy based on the theory of residual immunity.<br>METHOD: The analysis is based on a deterministic mathematical model which predicted the epidemiologic outcome while simultaneously evaluating the effect of any specified control strategy of the smallpox epidemic. To clarify the required amount of vaccines, we performed mathematical analysis for hypothetical population to acquire herd immunity based on long-lasting vaccinal immunity.<br>RESULTS: It is demonstrated that the crude size of the potential epidemic could be greatly affected by possible level of residual immunity. The results also suggest the possibility to develop optimal distribution of nationwide vaccination according to the immune status. The prevalence at 50th day among population without immunity in our simulation would be approximately 405 times greater than expected population with residual immunity, and required amount of vaccines for equal distribution would be 3.13 times more than optimal distribution.<br>CONCLUSION: The mathematical model formulated could determine the vaccination priority based on the real status of immunity which required much less amount of vaccinations than would be calculated using an equal distribution program. It is therefore crucial to determine the real immunity status of the population via epidemiologic studies.

収録刊行物

• Ｊｏｕｒｎａｌ　ｏｆ　Ｅｐｉｄｅｍｉｏｌｏｇｙ

  Ｊｏｕｒｎａｌ　ｏｆ　Ｅｐｉｄｅｍｉｏｌｏｇｙ 14 (2), 41-50, 2004

  日本疫学会

キーワード

• smallpox
• bioterrorism
• models, mathematical
• vaccination
• immunity

詳細情報

• CRID: 1390282679452594944
• NII論文ID: 10012919409
• NII書誌ID: AA10952696
• DOI: 10.2188/jea.14.41
• COI: 1:STN:280:DC%2BD2c3msVWltA%3D%3D
• ISSN: 13499092
• ISSN: 09175040
• PubMed: 15162977
• Web Site: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jea/14/2/14_2_41/_pdf
• Web Site: https://search.jamas.or.jp/link/ui/2006032810
• 本文言語コード: en
• データソース種別:
  • JaLC
  • Crossref
  • PubMed
  • CiNii Articles
• 抄録ライセンスフラグ: 使用不可