REAL TIME ESTIMATION OF REPRODUCTION NUMBERS BASED ON CASE NOTIFICATIONS-Effective reproduction number of primary pneumonic plague

DOI Web Site 参考文献43件
  • NISHIURA HIROSHI
    Graduate School of Health Sciences, Hiroshima University Department of Medical Biometry, Faculty of Medicine, Tübingen University
  • KAKEHASHI MASAYUKI
    Graduate School of Health Sciences, Hiroshima University

書誌事項

タイトル別名
  • - Effective reproduction number of primary pneumonic plague

この論文をさがす

抄録

To estimate the time-dependent transmission potential of primary pneumonic plague (PPP), we analyzed historical records from six outbreaks. Based on contact investigation information (source of infection information) of three outbreaks, we generalized the probability density function of the serial interval with a Gamma distribution using maximum likelihood estimations. Furthermore, we used a likelihood-based approach to estimate effective reproduction numbers at time t, Rt, incorporating records from the remaining three outbreaks by assuming independence within unknown contact networks. According to our estimates, the Rt of PPP during the initial phases of each epidemic were roughly in the order of 1.3 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0-4.3) in Oakland, 1.4 (0.0-4.6) in Rangoon and 6.5 (0.0-16.0) in Ecuador. The expected values of Rt were shown to slightly exceed unity, even in latter stages. While declining trends in Rt were observed in Oakland and Ecuador, no such trend was observed in Rangoon. The findings suggest that the three outbreaks investigated could have been accompanied by demographic stochasticity. The statistical usefulness of the transformation procedure, even with a small number of recorded cases available, was demonstrated, and the expected responses to bioterrorism using Yersinia pestis were discussed.

収録刊行物

参考文献 (43)*注記

もっと見る

キーワード

詳細情報 詳細情報について

問題の指摘

ページトップへ