青森県におけるスギ花粉飛散開始予測 Prediction of the Date of Japanese Cedar Pollen Release in Aomori Prefecture

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花粉飛散開始日は気象条件により左右されるので,その地域に合った予測法の確立が望まれる.青森県は同じ県内でも花粉飛散前の気象条件が地域により異なるため,青森市,弘前市,八戸市の各々について予測に最も有用な気温積算の開始日(起算日)と気温積算の基準となる温度(基準温度)を,過去9年間(1996-2004年)のデータを用いて検討した.また,スギ花粉症患者は個々により感受性が異なり発症時期も異なることから,初観測日,飛散開始日,本格飛散開始日の各々について予測が可能かどうかを検討した.<br>その結果,各市において予測に有用な起算日と基準温度を設定し,基準温度を超えた日数(有効日数)を積算することにより,初観測日,飛散開始日,本格飛散開始日が予測できることが示唆された.さらに,2005年の予測と実際の初観測日,飛散開始日,本格飛散開始日についても検討を行った.

When we treat patients with pollen allergy, we require correct information about pollen release. The total count of pollen and the date of first pollen release are strongly influenced by local weather conditions, so we wanted to predict local pollen release.<br>Patients have degrees of sensitivity to pollen, with symptoms triggered in some cases by only small amounts. Therefore, we wanted to determine the previous dates of first pollen release (A), the first of two consecutive dates when one (count/cm<sup>2</sup>) or more grains were released (B), and the first of two consecutive dates when ten (count/cm<sup>2</sup>) or more grains were released (C). Aomori Prefecture has three different weather zones because it is surrounded by three oceans-the Sea of Japan, the Pacific Ocean, and Mutsu Bay. We predicted pollen release in the major cities-Aomori, Hirosaki, and Hachinohe.<br>Using nine years (1996-2004) of temperature data for each city from January 1 through February 1, we recorded the number of days in which the daily highest temperature was higher than each of five set temperatures (0°C, 1°C, 2°C, 3°C, 4°C) up to the dates of A, B, and C. Multiple recordings were made for each year with the initial date of recording staggered at 10-day intervals. We then calculated the standard deviation and the efficient of variation of total days and totals of temperatures over set temperatures.<br>For Aomori, results indicated that A was predicted as day 19 with temperatures over 4°C after January 21. B was day 23 over 4°C after January 21. C was the day 31 with over 4°C after January 21.<br>For Hirosaki, A was expected to be day 26 having temperatures over 0°C after February 1. B was day 21 over 3°C after February 1. C was day 30 over 3°C after January 21.<br>For Hachinohe, A was day 34 with temperatures over 0°C after February 1. B was day 33 over 1°C after January 21. C was day 27 over 4°C after January 21. We examined the day of pollen release in 2005.

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  • 日本耳鼻咽喉科學會會報  

    日本耳鼻咽喉科學會會報 109(12), 813-820, 2006-12-20 

    The Oto-Rhino-Laryngological Society of Japan, Inc.

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各種コード

  • NII論文ID(NAID)
    10018561502
  • NII書誌ID(NCID)
    AN00191551
  • 本文言語コード
    JPN
  • 資料種別
    ART
  • ISSN
    00306622
  • NDL 記事登録ID
    8634395
  • NDL 雑誌分類
    ZS43(科学技術--医学--耳鼻咽喉科学)
  • NDL 請求記号
    Z19-250
  • データ提供元
    CJP書誌  CJP引用  NDL  J-STAGE 
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