国際食料需給政策の新たな視点 : アジアのコメ需要減退を事例に [in Japanese] A New Perspective for the Policies on Global Food Supply and Demand : The Case of Weakening Demand for Rice in Asia [in Japanese]
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Rice per capita consumption (PCRC) in Asian countries is still decreasing. Not only has it decreased from 160kg to 50kg in Taiwan and from 120kg to 65kg in Japan during the last four decades, the important point to note is that the decline in PCRC in those countries has yet to stop. Now, with the economy booming in giant countries such as China and India, their PCRC are steadily declining. Assuming this trend continues in Asia, the total consumption by 2050 will be at the most only at 535 million MT, which is substantially lower than what was estimated earlier. If the decreasing rates were to accelerate threefold, the global total consumption of rice would not increase at all from the current level.It is important for Japan to assist the other Asian nations to conduct analysis on the rice consumption situation and to explore possible means to develop viable markets for rice. In the developing countries of Asia, researchers are still fully engaged on the production side, but the importance of studies on rice demand for those countries is obvious. In conjunction with other Asian countries, Japan needs to take the lead to rescue the world's most efficient and magnificent production of rice in Asia. Otherwise, there will be a glut in the rice supply and farmers will suffer due to the depressed market prices in the future. Meanwhile, the changing diets in Asia should be monitored closely, and each government should develop their ideal diet taking into consideration domestic food production. The ODA programs provided by Japan may need to be re-examined, so that the aid can cover the assistance needed to establish the ideal diet for each recipient country.
- Journal of Rural Problems
Journal of Rural Problems 42(3), 253-262, 2006-12-25
The Association for Regional Agricultural and Forestry Economics