Prediction of Travel Time in Urban District Based on State Equation

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  • 状態方程式に基づく市街地幹線道路の旅行時間予測
  • ジョウタイ ホウテイシキ ニ モトズク シガイチ カンセン ドウロ ノ リョコウ ジカン ヨソク

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Abstract

The presentation of the travel time information to drivers is one of the important roles of the information system concerned with road traffic. This paper proposes a prediction method of the travel time in urban district using the travel time data of the small section which constitutes a route. The forecasting model consists of past time series data about the travel time of the small section. The travel time and accuracy of a near future of the route are estimated using State Equation of the forecasting model. The validity of the method is verified using real data. As the results of examinations, the prediction error became almost 2.5 minutes. Generally, to fifty minutes of travel time, it is desirable that prediction error is within five minutes. Therefore, it is conceivable that this result is fit to sufficient practical use.

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