見積情報を先行指標として利用した受注生産製品の需要予測方式 Demand Forecasting Method for Build-To-Order Products Using Quote Information as an Advance Indicator

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抄録

A method of forecasting shipping number of parts is proposed for build-to-order products using quote information in pre-sales as an advance indicator. As the target shipping number of parts changes irregularity in a short cycle, it is difficult to forecast with conventional methods. In case of build-to-order product, quote information is useful for forecasting multiplying by order probability. But the problem is how to identify the order probability includes unobservable noise. The method assumes the noise as normal random number and corrects it with Kalman filter. The shipping number is calculated using identified order probability and previous quoted information. The method was evaluated using 78 types of parts of an information equipment product. Experimental result demonstrates that shipping number of parts whose average rate of change are less than 0.4 can be estimated with 28.2% of mean absolute percent error, making the method available for forecasting the target shipping number.

収録刊行物

  • 電気学会論文誌. C, 電子・情報・システム部門誌 = The transactions of the Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. C, A publication of Electronics, Information and System Society  

    電気学会論文誌. C, 電子・情報・システム部門誌 = The transactions of the Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. C, A publication of Electronics, Information and System Society 128(4), 562-568, 2008-04-01 

    The Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan

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各種コード

  • NII論文ID(NAID)
    10021131994
  • NII書誌ID(NCID)
    AN10065950
  • 本文言語コード
    JPN
  • 資料種別
    ART
  • ISSN
    03854221
  • NDL 記事登録ID
    9451323
  • NDL 雑誌分類
    ZN31(科学技術--電気工学・電気機械工業)
  • NDL 請求記号
    Z16-795
  • データ提供元
    CJP書誌  CJP引用  NDL  J-STAGE 
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