不確実性リスクを考慮した分散電源を含む配電系統設備計画手法の検討 [in Japanese] A New Distribution System Planning Method with Considering Distributed Generators and Uncertainty Risk [in Japanese]
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This paper proposes a new distribution system planning method that considers distributed generators （DG） and uncertainty risk. The authors have studied so far a similar new planning method to take into account DG installation. For practical planning，however，demand forecast and DG installation forecast should be very important factors and the uncertainty of them is becoming large due to deregulation of power industry. In our previous. study，the future demand and the DG installation were assumed to be a certain value and the effects of their uncertainty was not considered. This means that if the assumption is not appropriate，the plan will be no use and huge amount of pecuniary damage will appear. The new distribution system planning method proposed in this paper includes DG installation and risk estimation，which is induced by the uncertainty of DG installation and demand growth. Scenario-tree method is adopted to express the their uncertainties and utility function is used to express a decision-maker's feeling against the risk. This method can avoid pecuniary damage effectively at the planning stage. The proposed method is demonstrated through several numerical simulations to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method with successful results.
- The Journal of the Institute
The Journal of the Institute 27(10), 845-853, 2007-10-10
The Institute of Electrical Installation Engineers of Japan