AN ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF PRECIPITATION UNCERTAINTY ON THE PERFORMANCE OF A DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOGICAL MODEL

この論文にアクセスする

この論文をさがす

著者

    • DULAL Khada Nanda
    • Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Medicine and Engineering, University of Yamanashi
    • TAKEUCHI Kuniyoshi
    • Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Medicine and Engineering, University of Yamanashi
    • ISHIDAIRA Hiroshi
    • Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Medicine and Engineering, University of Yamanashi

抄録

The aim of this study is to assess the uncertainty in precipitation using a distributed hydrological model. Firstly, a true model is established and then error is applied to true precipitation. The uncertainty is analyzed by using sensitivity analysis approach for systematic error and Monte Carlo approach for random error. Next, the parameters of the model are calibrated with erroneous data. Finally, the impact of low precipitation is assessed by neglecting different levels of low precipitation. The result of the study for a Nepalese river basin shows that a systematic error exceeding +/-10% causes significant impact on simulated flows. The impact of normally distributed random error with standard deviation equals to 10% of observed precipitation is not substantial. The calibration of parameters can adjust the low error, but the higher errors should not be compensated by just fitting the curve. Error on low precipitation of amount less than 0.5mm measured with some error does not affect the flood discharge.

収録刊行物

  • Journal of hydroscience and hydraulic engineering  

    Journal of hydroscience and hydraulic engineering 24(2), 77-88, 2006-11-01 

    Japan Society of Civil Engineers

参考文献:  13件

参考文献を見るにはログインが必要です。ユーザIDをお持ちでない方は新規登録してください。

各種コード

  • NII論文ID(NAID)
    10021137795
  • NII書誌ID(NCID)
    AA1045915X
  • 本文言語コード
    ENG
  • 資料種別
    ART
  • ISSN
    09122508
  • データ提供元
    CJP書誌  J-STAGE 
ページトップへ