本州東部におけるチシマザサの潜在分布域の予測と気候変化の影響評価

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  • Habitat prediction and impact assessment of climate change on <i>Sasa kurilensis</i> in eastern Honshu, Japan
  • ホンシュウ トウブ ニ オケル チシマザサ ノ センザイ ブンプイキ ノ ヨソク ト キコウ ヘンカ ノ エイキョウ ヒョウカ
  • Habitat prediction and impact assessment of climate change on Sasa kurilensis in eastern Honshu, Japan

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<p>Relationship between Sasa kurilensis distributions and climate was modelled and clarified at ca. 1-km2 spatial resolutions in eastern Honshu, Japan. Occurrence probability was then predicted under both current climate and a future climate change scenario to assess the impact of climate change. A classification tree model was used to predict the potential habitat. Five climatic factors (warmth index: WI, minimum temperature of the coldest month: TMC, summer precipitation: PRS, maximum snow water equivalent: MSW, winter rainfall: WR) were used as predictor variables, and the species distribution data obtained from Phytosociological Relevé Data Base (PRDB) was used as a response variable. Deviance-Weighted Scores (DWS) revealed that the most influential factor for the species distribution was MSW, followed by WI, PRS, WR and TMC. Predicted potential habitat was divided into “suitable habitat” and “marginal habitat”, based on the optimal threshold occurrence probability calculated from the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) analysis. Climatic thresholds of potential habitat were also detected. The area of suitable habitats and marginal habitats were predicted to decrease 78.3% and 32.9% respectively, due to decrease in MSW and increase in WI.</p>

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  • ＧＩＳ‐理論と応用

    ＧＩＳ‐理論と応用 16 (1), 11-25, 2008-06-30

    一般社団法人　地理情報システム学会

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