A Probabilistic Choice Model of Multiple Items Selection

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Conventional choice model of consumer behavior posits that buyers choose a single item or one brand at a time. However, there are many occasions that consumers pick up several items or a couple of brands at the same time to satisfy their own needs and/or to maximize their family's utility. We can observe this kind of phenomena in the market of packaged consumer products such as tobacco, candy bar, beer, and soft drink. We construct a new probabilistic choice model of consumer behavior. In order to deal with such a situation that a consumer makes a simultaneous selection of multiple items from his consideration set of brands, we assume a two stage model of consumer choice behavior. At first stage, we suppose, a consumer makes a decision whether he buys a single brand or a mixed bundle of brands. Then he makes a decision of which brand (s) to be picked up and assigns the allocation number of multiple brands. We use a set of point-of-sale beer data scanned at a convenience store to estimate the model parameters. Our model is well fitted into the empirical data. Marketing implications and the possibilities of further extensions with our basic idea are provided.

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