推薦入学制度は「成功」しているのか : 受験生の合理的選択仮説に基づく実証分析  [in Japanese] Is High School Admission Using Junior High School Recommendations Successful? An Assessment of Rational Choice Theory  [in Japanese]

This paper analyzes the effects of high school admissions based on junior high school recommendations. Educational reformers in Japan tend to believe in the importance of ideals and to ignore the facts, and they fail to consider the intentions of actors. As a result their plans and reforms, especially the reforms of the entrance examination system, often fail. According to Coleman, sociologists have failed to focus on micro-macro links. Though one actor may behave rationally, the aggregate of many people's acts often leads to unintended consequences. If we use rational choice theory, we can explain this missing link. However, some sociologists criticize rational choice theory as having no evidence, so I use my original data to check the validity of the theory. The intent of the policymakers is to select students who have original personality, break the hierarchical system in high school, and relax competition. However, to begin with, we cannot objectively evaluate students with different types of personality. Personality indexes are limited to experiences as student leaders, captains of sports clubs, sports tournament winners, excellent students who have abilities in art, etc. However, students who achieve high scores in academic subjects also tend to get such achievements. It is hard even for students who get high scores to pass the entrance exams, because other competitors also have excellent scores and good skills and these "indexes." The recommendation system does not include paper tests. Students who are not able to achieve high scores do not have rivals and competitors. Therefore, the recommendation system allows a relaxation of competition only for those students who cannot get high scores. On the other hand, the gap between students who get high scores and those who cannot get high scores tends to expand. It is possible that through the recommendation system, the problems involving the educational system in Japan will become worse and worse. It is impossible to avoid the occurrence of unintended consequences. There are a variety of ways to understand and grasp the social situation and environment surrounding oneself. So it is natural that different persons act in different ways. However, sociologists must consider and predict the perverse effects of social policy.