A213 個体ベースモデルによる微生物混合培養系の毒性評価シミュレーション(パターン形成関連)

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  • A213 Toxicity Assessment Simulation of an Aquatic Microcosm Using Individual Based Model(Session : Pattern Formation)

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The construction of the International Space Station (ISS) has been advanced, and the space development will come into sight the Lunar station and Mars station in the future. It seems that we will bring the plant and microorganism in there to produce the food and to suppress the power consumption of the material processing. Then, these Closed Ecological System become more complex, and it is necessary to examine the influence of the space environment on the ecosystem. Up to now, the mathematical modeling by the differential equation has been used for the model of the ecosystem. But, this method describes the average concentration of the population and materials distributed uniformly. Therefore, it is not expressible spatial ecological structure in the system. Especially, it is known that an ecological structure, i.e. colonies, is generated in the microcosm. It is important for the simulation to be generated colonies. Then, we suggest the Individual Based Model. It has been developed to simulate colonies in the microcosm containing three organisms ; chlorella, bacteria, and rotifera. It was shown that the method could be expressive of behavior of the real microcosm. For example, a time transition of population was corresponding to the experiment very well. In this paper, the behavior of the system when Cu^<2+>ions or Al^<3+>ions were added to the microcosm at the 15^<th> day from beginning of the culture (the mature stage) was discussed by the use of this model. When adding Cu^<2+>ions, it impedes the multiplying factor of producer. Adding Al^<3+>ions, the multiplying factor of consumer. Then, we were enabled to simulate toxicity assessment by changing multiplying factor of rotifera or chlorella. However, first of all, it must be revealed the true nature of the influence of chemical substances added to the microcosm. We think that it is to change the material circulation rate and metabolic rate in the ecosys tem. Therefore, we chose material circulation rate and turnover rate as parameters to evaluate the influence. Turnover rate is one of the metabolic rates. The results of calculation were as follows : (1) This method was able to be generated colonies. The reliability of the model was confirmed from the agreement with the results of experiment. (2) The change in the multiplying factor of producer influences the system easily than the change in that of consumer. Therefore, it was confirmed that producer rule the material circulation in the system. (3) When the chemical substances added to the microcosm, the stable range of the system was decided by examining the material circulation rate, metabolic rate and extinction of organisms. Therefore, when adding different organism that we have already known its multiplying factor, it was shown that it was possible to judge whether the system was stable or not before adding it. In this study, it was shown that the Individual Based Model was very effective to reveal the nature of the ecosystem.

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