Estimation of Countermeasures against Natural Disaster

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  • 防災ポテンシャルの評価法

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Abstract

The potential of natural disaster prevention using hard countermeasures can be presented in terms of the probability of encounters with natural disaster during one's lifetime. It was found that the average lifespan can be used to predict most factors related to the soft countermeasures. The Disaster Prevention Appraisal Index (DPAI) which is defined by a multiple logistic function can quantitatively estimate the defensive potential of both soft and hard countermeasures. The DPAI is shown to be highly applicable in the evaluation of countermeasures against huge natural disasters (the number of death is more than 1000).

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