A Simulation Model for Colony Development of the Hornet Vespa simillima (Hymenoptera, Vespidae)

Data collected from 41 normal colonies of Vespa simillima over a period of 2 years in central Japan were used to develop a simulation model which attempted to predict the daily changes in a typical colony of this species. The model output produced similar changes to those observed in natural colonies for all of the numerical colony characteristics measured. The model is controlled by 5 variables : Cell building rate, egg laying rate, type of egg laid (worker/male/queen), developmental periods of the brood, and survivorship of the brood and workers. In the model, only the last two variables were altered from their empirical values. These changes are discussed. As the model output appears to represent actual changes in a real colony, the effects of changing the controlling variables are discussed as they indicate the importance of the quality of the mother queen in the final outcome of a colony.