わが国における社会保障制度の計量経済学的分析

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  • An Econometric Analysis of Social Security System in Japan
  • ワガクニ ニ オケル シャカイ ホショウ セイド ノ ケイリョウ ケイザイガクテキ ブンセキ

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The construction of this paper is as follows. First of all, we construct a macro-econometric model which contains Japenese social security system explicitly, in order to consider the relationship of interdependence between national economic activity and social security system. Then we show the relationship numericaly by dynamic simulation analysis of the above macro-econometric model. The model, estimated by OLS mohod over the sample period 1975 to 1990, contains 194 endogenous variables and 68 exogenous variables. The final test shows that the explanatory effectiveness of the model is tolerably good for the actual course of Japanese ecomomy and Japanese social security system over the sample period. The major results are as follows. (1) A 10 percent increase in wage and deflator for private final consumption gives rise to a slight fall in real GNP. Therefore, the economic effect of Japanese social security system is nagative as far as the effect on the real GNP is concerned. (2) A 10 percent increase in wage and deflator for private final consumption improves the net balance of social insurance. (3) From the point of view of the insurance principle, there are not the definite relationships between occupational social insurances and regional social insurances. (4) The net balance of social medical insurance in the year 2000 will be deficit all over. And the level of livelihood protection per capita in the year 2000, will be higher than the level of pension insurance per capita.

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