中国人民元相場は切り上げるべきか  [in Japanese] Should the Chinese Yuan (RMB) be Revalued?  [in Japanese]

At the time of planned economy, the RMB exchange rate was quite stable against Pound Sterling. Although, the RMB exchange rate against U.S. dollars had not been quoted officially until the beginning of nineteen seventies, the rate had not changed at all since 1955 until December, 1971, when the multilateral adjustments of Western countries' exchange rates were made. The RMB exchange rate against those of Western countries had always been appreciated until the end of nineteen seventies. After China adopted 'Open Door Policy', the RMB rate against those of Western countries continued to depreciate. The main reason for depreciation was to promote exports. At the end of nineteen nineties, the rumor of RMB's devaluation prevailed in the world market. Since the beginning of 21 century, especially since the beginning of 2003, the rumor of RMB's revaluation has been prevailing. When the rumor of RMB's devaluation prevailed, the large scale of capital flight was noticed. Since there is the possibility of RMB's revaluation, the large scale of the inflow of hot money is noticed. Now the Chinese economy became more and more complicated. The Chinese authorities cannot fix the rate only to promote exports. At this moment, it may be fair for China to say that they cannot revalue RMB. However, it is quite important for China to decide the new mechanism to fix the RMB rate.