抄録
グローバリゼーションの進展で様々な社会問題が発生しているが,なかでも食生活は偽装問題や公害問題などが相次いで起こり,消費者はもちろん,その生産から加工,流通までの供給者も,食品の需要動向,それも短期動向に絶えず注意を払っていかなくてはならない事態に立ち至っている。しかしながら,食料需要の短期予測に関する研究は意外に少なく,近年では唯是の時系列分析が指摘される程度である。本稿はその分析方法を直近のデータに適用して,その妥当性を確認するとともに,1年先を四半期別に予測し,その結果をパソコンで自動的に分かりやすい表現で関係者一般に周知徹底する手法を考案した。
Recent economic globalization has caused various social problems. Among them have been the many cases of fraudulent-labeling of processed-food packaging and more alarmingly, instances of 'tainted' foods from overseas. These recently reported cases have had a significant impact on the short-term supply of fresh and processed foods and the short-term changes of their prices. To deal with the uncertainty of this fluctuating situation, food-producers, suppliers, and consumers need to be informed of the developing trends regarding the reporting, and prediction, of food-consumption data. However there is very little data available, and very few studies have been conducted in the field of 'Short-Term Forecasting of Food-Demand'. The only example in recent years is the 'application of time-series analysis' by Yuize. The author has applied Yuize's model to the most recent food-consumption data, and have confirmed the model's validity. The author has produced quarterly predictions for up to one year ahead. These results can be viewed in an accessible, simple format, using a personal-computer. Furthermore the author has developed a new method that makes the forecast data accessible to a wide range of interested people. This paper reports the results mentioned above.
