到着遅延リスクを考慮した内航船の省エネルギー運航について  [in Japanese] Energy Saving Operation for Coastal Ships with Consideration of Arrival Delay Risk  [in Japanese]

Following predetermined voyage plans is of the utmost importance for coastal shipping. Generally, coastal ships are operated slightly ahead of schedule to keep sufficient room for avoiding any risk of arrival delay. If the standard deviation of arrival time error on the recommended route can be estimated, it is possible to follow the ship operation schedule and save a large amount of fuel. From the above point of view, the authors propose a new weather routing algorithm that takes the "risk of delay" concept into account. In the proposed algorithm, the standard deviation of the error of arrival time is estimated using information on the accuracy of wind/wave forecast. Our simulation results confirmed that the standard deviation of the arrival time error on the minimum fuel route can be accurately estimated, reducing the risk of delay of arrival time.