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We have been developing a real time simulation system as the useful tool for decision-making in setup of strategy of emergency operational plan of fire brigades against simultaneous multiple fires following an earthquake. This system produces such information for supporting fire-fighting activities as prompt prediction of fire spread at a certain future period, required fire engines and water supply for controlling fires, and an optimum fire-fighting operation with existing resources based on the data of real time simulation of fire spread and also fire brigades' operation. In this paper, we present the results and discussion from the case study, in which the system was applied to a certain city in the suburb of Tokyo as an object region to do the risk analysis of fire spread potential caused by post-earthquake fires by Monte Carlo simulation. The results shows that this system is useful for estimating the risk of fire spread potential by each district for both unattended and optimally attended post-earthquake fires.
