A Methodology of Evaluation and Decision Making for Uncertainty Problems

During the conceptual design and initial planning stage, the evaluation and decision making processes for the uncertainty problems such as those subjected to personal likes and extremely dependent upon conceptual variations, are apt to depend on making use of the experience and ingenuity of engineers and specialists. When the decision is to be taken based upon multi-criteria objectives, it is desirable to establish a methodology for making decisions those are balanced in an overall perspective. In order to consider the conceptual, qualitative and indeterminable elements, the process of this decision making method is broken down into a structural evaluation model, a grading analysis model, and an evaluation-decision model; proposed through the techniques of engineering management using the fuzzy theory. As a typical example of a practical application for the proposed method, the process of making a choice of the material transportation systems between two metropolises is presented here.