A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Contacts by Suspicious Persons and Subsequent Occurrence of Sex Crimes

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  • 声かけなどの不審者遭遇情報と性犯罪の時空間的近接性の分析
  • コエカケ ナド ノ フシンシャ ソウグウ ジョウホウ ト セイ ハンザイ ノ ジクウカンテキ キンセツセイ ノ ブンセキ

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Abstract

Both the police and the public seem to treat reports of contacts by suspicious persons as precursor events to occurrence of sex crimes in a nearby area. However, no empirical research has been conducted regarding the spatio-temporal relationship of the reports of contacts by suspicious persons and subsequent sex crime occurrences. Using an analytical technique developed in the criminological literature on near repeat victimization, this research investigated if reports of contacts by suspicious persons were linked to increased likelihood of sex crime occurrences in the area. The analysis indicated that sex crimes occurred in close proximity both in time and space to the reports of contacts by suspicious persons. Furthermore, the results also indicated that the likelihood of sex crime occurrences decreased as the time and distance became farther removed from those of suspicious personal incidents. While this research was not designed to prove if a suspicious person in the reports and a sex crime offender were the same individual due to data limitation, the results still indicated that the location and time of the suspicious person reports could be used to predict the future occurrences of sex crimes and to direct police resources in focused time and space.

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