Modeling Survival and Destruction of Teak Plantations in Java, Indonesia Modeling Survival and Destruction of Teak Plantations in Java, Indonesia

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著者

    • Tiryana Tatang
    • Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo:Department of Forest Management, Faculty of Forestry, Bogor Agricultural University (IPB)

抄録

Teak plantations in Java show severely declining productivity due to various disturbances. The risk of stand destruction, however, is still ignored in determining annual allowable cuts, partly due to the lack of reliable methods to estimate the rate of stand destruction. This study therefore proposed an alternative method, based on the theory of survival analysis coupled with forest register data, for estimating survival probability and destruction rate of teak plantations. We used the forest register data of teak plantations in Kebonharjo, Central Java, for the period 1977-2007. Survival and destruction of plantations were modeled using probability distribution models. To estimate model parameters, we used the maximum likelihood estimation method designed for left-truncated and right-censored data. Results showed that survival probability and destruction rate varied over stand age and planning period. Rates of stand destruction were relatively low (<2% per year) in the period 1977-1987, but increased up to 3% and 14% per year in the period 1987-1997 and 1997-2007, respectively. The highest rate of destruction mostly occurred in young stands (&le;30 years old), indicating an alarming condition for the sustainability of teak plantations. The survival and destruction models are useful for forest managers to quantify the range of historical variability in forest disturbances and to support the development of alternative harvest scheduling methods that incorporate the risk of stand destruction for teak plantations in Java. The proposed method can also be applied to other regions, especially when only forest register data are available.

収録刊行物

  • Journal of Forest Planning

    Journal of Forest Planning 16(2), 35-44, 2011

    森林計画学会

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各種コード

  • NII論文ID(NAID)
    110008799927
  • NII書誌ID(NCID)
    AA11059168
  • 本文言語コード
    ENG
  • 資料種別
    ART
  • ISSN
    1341562X
  • データ提供元
    CJP書誌  NII-ELS  J-STAGE 
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