民生用情報通信機器の普及過程の研究を通じた新たなライフサイクル理論の可能性

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  • A PROPOSITION OF NEW LIFE CYCLE THEORY THROUGH INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION APPLIANCES
  • ミンセイヨウ ジョウホウ ツウシン キキ ノ フキュウ カテイ ノ ケンキュウ オ ツウジタ アラタ ナ ライフサイクル リロン ノ カノウセイ

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This paper modifies the original PLC (Product Life Cycle) model in order to consider the product class lifetime in a more comprehensive manner. It has been shown that life cycles can be modeled more effectively by plotting MPR (Market Penetration Ratio) instead of sales monetary amounts or quantities. The sales amounts and quantities include the various types of purchases, such as new or first time purchases and repeat purchases, and they may fluctuate so widely that it is unreasonable to apply bell-shape functions to them. This paper suggests a new life cycle theory through cases of information and communication devices by proposing a new framework whose objective function and explanatory variable are different from PLC. The subject products are : the TV (Black and White Television), the SRP (Stereo Record Player), the VC (Video Camera; excluding cell phones and digital cameras that can take videos), the DVD (Digital Video Disk Player and Recorder), the PC (Personal Computer), the FAX (Fax Machine), and the ANS (Automobile Navigation System) , which are all precision consumer electronics products whose maximum MPRs are greater than 40%, and whose diffusion processes can be followed-up. Instead of sales amounts or volumes, an MPR is used as an objective function. The explanatory function is replaced from time to a complex indicator reflecting passages of time and changes in selling price and technological innovation. It becomes possible to objectively divide the product category lifetime into several stages by using MPR. It would be very helpful for managers to assess the market situation and modify a strategy because an MPR can propose clear borders between other stages, and can indicate the transition of the main consumer types and their purchase patterns.

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