ケインズの蓋然性論とナイトの不確実性論 : 奇跡の1921年を考える

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  • ケインズ ノ ガイゼンセイロン ト ナイト ノ フカクジツセイロン キセキ ノ 1921ネン オ カンガエル
  • J. M. Keynes’ Theory of Probability versus F. H. Knight's Theory of Uncertainty : Reflections on the Miracle Year of 1921

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type:Departmental Bulletin Paper

The main purpose of this paper is to criticallydiscuss and lucidly compare J. M. Keynes (1883-1946) and F. H. Knight (1886-1972), two towering figures in the history of economic thought. It is in 1921 that they both published apparently similar books on risk, probability and uncertainty. While Knight’ contribution on the economics of risk and uncertainty has been well-known and very influential in the economics profession, Keynes’accomplishments on probability and uncertainty have been more or less underestimated in the dark shadow of his most famous book (1936) The General Theory of Unemployment, Interest and Money.The present paper aims to focus on an earlieryet equally important book (1921) A Treatise onProbability, hopefully shedding a new light onhis outstanding ideas and everlasting influenceson his later works including The General Theory.According to Keynes, many probabilities, which are incapable of numerical measurement, can be placed nevertheless between numerical upper and lower limits. Keynes has demonstrated whether and to what extent animal spirits contributes to the working and performance of the market economy. Remarkably, Keynes' concept of probability and uncertainty can be well-compared to Knight's distinction between a measurable risk and a non-measurable uncertainty. I believe that it is high time for us to unify Keynes and Knight into a new,comprehensive approach to very complex human behavior.

identifier:彦根論叢, 第398号, pp. 50-69

identifier:The Hikone Ronso, No.398, pp. 50-69

収録刊行物

  • 彦根論叢

    彦根論叢 第398号 50-69, 2013-12

    滋賀大学経済学会

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