FORECASTING THE INTERNATIONAL TOURISM DEMAND FROM EAST ASIA TO JAPAN

DOI
  • OKAMOTO Naohisa
    University of Tsukuba, Graduate School of Systems and Information Engineering
  • KURIHARA Takeshi
    University of Tsukuba, Graduate School of Systems and Information Engineering
  • ISHIDA Haruo
    University of Tsukuba, Graduate School of Systems and Information Engineering

抄録

This paper suggests a method in forecasting international tourism demand. The forecasting model has two stages of estimation. First stage is the “International Trip Generation”. We explained this by using a logistic curve. Second, we proceed to find out the travel destination by using the aggregate logit model. Results for the forecast of tourists coming to Japan led to two main conclusions. 1) The number of tourists from every Asian country shows a growing tendency until 2030. 2) Moreover, the rate of tourist visiting Japan will decrease gradually compared to other regions such as North America where the rate is steadily increasing

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詳細情報 詳細情報について

  • CRID
    1390282680265911808
  • NII論文ID
    130000087443
  • DOI
    10.11175/easts.7.1389
  • ISSN
    18811124
  • 本文言語コード
    en
  • データソース種別
    • JaLC
    • CiNii Articles
  • 抄録ライセンスフラグ
    使用不可

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