Prediction of sliding distance of seismic landslides in Loess Plateau, China

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  • Wang Lanmin
    Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration
  • Wang Nai
    Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, CEA / Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development
  • Wang Qian
    Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, CEA

抄録

Earthquake induced landslides were one of major causes for a large number of deaths and huge economic loss in the Loess Plateau. In order to evaluate the influencing area of seismic landslides, we presented a method of predicting sliding distance of seismic landslides in Loess Plateau by means of fuzzy information model based on 93 cases data of seismic loess landslides. Firstly, the types, characteristics, and influencing factors of seismic landslides in Loess Plateau were studied based on field investigation, back analysis and laboratory tests. Secondly, Morgenstern-Price method was used for calculating the seismic stability of loess slopes. The relationships between safe factor and influencing factors were established, which include seismic intensity, relative altitude, slope angle, unit weight, internal cohesion, internal friction angle. Furthermore, the factors of influencing sliding distance of landslides were figured out. Thirdly, a fuzzy information matrix was established based on 93 loess seismic landslides caused by South Tianshui 8.0 earthquake in 1654, Tong Wei 7.5 earthquake in 1718, Haiyuan 8.5 earthquake in 1920 and Gulang 8.0 earthquake in 1927. And then a fuzzy information model was developed for calculating sliding distance and influencing area of seismic loess landslides. Fourthly, the influencing areas of 22 potential landslides in Tianshui city were respectively predicted. The predicted results shown that the method presented in the paper is more accurate for seismic loess landslides, comparing with other methods.

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