メッシュ・データによる東京都の高齢化の展開

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  • メッシュ データ ニ ヨル トウキョウト ノ コウレイカ ノ テンカイ
  • Changes in the Spatial Distribution of Elderly Population in Tokyo Between 1975 And 1980 : Using Grid Data From Census

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本研究は，1975～1985年の東京都の高齢化の展開を地域メッシュ統計を用いて明らかにした。経年的には，東京都の人口は停滞しているものの，高齢人口は増加の一途を辿っている。高齢人口は，空間的には，人口の分布同様に，都心3区を取り巻く区部に多く分布するが，高齢人口比の分布は，都心3区や郡部において高い値を示している。そして，この高齢人口比の増加，すなわち，高齢化のスピードの地域差を説明するために，当該地域の人口動態，特に，高齢人口と非高齢人口の純移動率に着目した。東京都を，都心3区，区部，多摩近郊，多摩郊外，郡部の5つに区分し，各メッシュの年齢階級別の純移動率をかかる地域ごとに集計し，各地域での高齢化の進展を概観した。その結果，都心3区では，高い高齢人口比を示すものの，相対的な転出超過の停滞や，近い将来に高齢者となる可能性のある定住の壮年層の転入が余り見込まれないことから高齢化の進度は，急激には上昇しないものと考えられる。しかし，同じく，高い高齢人口比を示した，郡部では，青年層の転出もさることながら，定住が想定される壮年層の社会増が見られることから，今後も高齢化はさらに促進されるものといえる。また，高齢人口比が比較的低い，区部や多摩近郊においては，いずれも，青年層の転入超過に就職，結婚，出産といったライフ・ステージの変化に対応したものと考えられる壮年層の転出が見られる。したがって，これらの地域では，全体的な社会増減が詰抗することから，既に定住している次期高齢者の存在が，当該地域の高齢化の進度に影響を与えているといえる。一方，多摩郊外では，全ての年齢階級において転入超過が見られ，高齢化のスピードは抑制されているが，転入者が持家獲得を前提とした区部や多摩近郊からの壮年層であることを考えれば，近い将来，この地域において急激な高齢化がみられるものと予想される。

Recently, the elderly populations of Japan and Western countries have been increasing rapidly. Especially, there has been a remarkable increase in the elderly population of Tokyo in the decade from 1975-1985. However, several characteristics of the aging process are differentiated at the county and township levels, which has considerable significance for the planning and implementation of social service and health care systems. This study probes the spatial distribution of the elderly population of Tokyo, and regional characteristics of the aging process, using one kilometer mesh data from the 1975, 1980 and 1985 Censuses for Tokyo. Specifically, it analyzes the relationship between progression of aging and net effect of population migration for each age group, obtained by cohort survival method. The following is a summary of the results of this analysis: 1) Although Tokyo's population growth for the period of 1970-1985 is stable, the relative and absolute increases in the age groups 65-74 and over 75 has escalated (see Figure 3). The spatial distribution of total population density and of the density of the population over 65, cuts the twenty-three Tokyo wards into zones. The most densely populated zones are located along the Yamanote Railway Loop and other major railway lines. The lower values appear in the metropolitan center, consisting of Chiyoda-ku, Chuo-ku and Minato-ku, and the country area in the western part of Tokyo (see Figures 4 and 5 ) . The rates of the elderly population are identified spatially with two poles: the highest values of over 17.5% appear in the metropolitan center and in the country area. The high meshes have been expanding to cover all of Tokyo City during the 1970-85 period (see Figure 6 ). 2) Location quotients show the relative growth rates of elderly population. Although the high location quotients appear almost exclusively in the country area (see Figure 8 ), the spatial pattern of meshes with location quotients of over 1.0 is complex (see Figure 9 ) . The low location quotients values appear in the suburban area of the Tama Region-notably the meshes of the Tama New Town area are less than 0.0. 3) The growth rates of the elderly population during the 1970-85 period show big differences in spatial distrbution. Thus, the prefecture is divided into five sub-regions: the Metropolitan Center, the Tokyo City excluding the Metropolitan Center, the urban area of the Tama Region, the suburban area of the Tama Region and the country area (see Figure 1 ) . The progressions of aging for each sub-region are accounted for by age-disaggregated net migration rates, estimated by a five-year cohort survival model. Out-migration of the young and aging-in-place of the resident population are responsible for percentage increases for elderly, while in-migration of the non-elderly is the major cause of reductions in elderly concentration (see Figure 15 and Table 1 ). Although the Metropolitan Center has a high elderly population rate, the speed of aging is not high, because of relative decrease of out-migration and unexpected in-migration of population aged 30-64. In the country area, however, though the rate of elderly is also high, out-migration of young people and in-migration of non-elderly population owning dwelling houses, will accelerate the progression of aging. Tokyo City and the urban Tama Region region register relatively low increases in the rates of elderly. In both these sub-regions, in-migration of the young and out-migration of the non-elderly aged 30 and over and 0 -14, are dominant. The in-migrants are from non-metropolitan areas, and the out-migrants correspond to the members of households with young children, leaving these regions for the suburbs. The good balance of the net-migration means that the aging progression of these sub-regions is caused by aging-in-place of the resident population. In the suburban area of the Tama Region, in-migration for all age groups lowers the rate of elderly and reduces the progression of aging for now. However, future progression of aging is expected because of the in-migrants owning houses in this region.

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収録刊行物

  • 総合都市研究

    総合都市研究 (39), 161-183, 1990-03

    東京都立大学都市研究センター

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