The Effects of Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in Vietnam : Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

• Le Thuan Dong

• Ishida Miki

抄録

There has been many researchers studied the effects of exchange rate on trade balance in Vietnam, when it's real exchange rate began appreciating in 2003. However, empirical studies examining the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance are limited. Most studies focus on only the long-run relationship; the short-run effect of exchange rate on trade balance has not been properly explored. This paper aims to fill this gap by measuring the effects of exchange rate on trade balance in the long run and short run, applying the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bound testing approach to cointegration with an error correction model (ECM) to explore the long-run and short-run relationships. The empirical analysis shows that there is evidence of J-curve only in Japan, Malaysia and Thailand models, and Marshall-Lerner condition holds in both aggregate model and disaggregate models except Singapore model.

収録刊行物

• 地域経済研究

  地域経済研究 27 63-71, 2016-03

  広島大学大学院社会科学研究科附属地域経済システム研究センター

キーワード

• trade balance
• exchange rate
• ARDL method
• and error correction model.

詳細情報

• CRID: 1390009224856997248
• NII論文ID: http://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/40020808990
• NII論文ID: 120005844293
• NII書誌ID: AN10175890
• DOI: 10.15027/41262
• NDL書誌ID: 027264790
• ISSN: 18847455
• Web Site: http://ir.lib.hiroshima-u.ac.jp/00041262
• Web Site: https://ndlsearch.ndl.go.jp/books/R000000004-I027264790
• 本文言語コード: en
• データソース種別:
  • JaLC
  • IRDB
  • NDL
  • CiNii Articles
• 抄録ライセンスフラグ: 使用可