Containing Pandemic Influenza at the Source

DOI Web Site 被引用文献17件
  • Ira M. Longini
    Department of Biostatistics, The Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Road, N.E., Atlanta, GA 30322, USA.
  • Azhar Nizam
    Department of Biostatistics, The Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Road, N.E., Atlanta, GA 30322, USA.
  • Shufu Xu
    Department of Biostatistics, The Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Road, N.E., Atlanta, GA 30322, USA.
  • Kumnuan Ungchusak
    Department of Biostatistics, The Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Road, N.E., Atlanta, GA 30322, USA.
  • Wanna Hanshaoworakul
    Department of Biostatistics, The Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Road, N.E., Atlanta, GA 30322, USA.
  • Derek A. T. Cummings
    Department of Biostatistics, The Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Road, N.E., Atlanta, GA 30322, USA.
  • M. Elizabeth Halloran
    Department of Biostatistics, The Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Road, N.E., Atlanta, GA 30322, USA.

抄録

<jats:p> Highly pathogenic avian influenza A (subtype H5N1) is threatening to cause a human pandemic of potentially devastating proportions. We used a stochastic influenza simulation model for rural Southeast Asia to investigate the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, quarantine, and pre-vaccination in containing an emerging influenza strain at the source. If the basic reproductive number ( <jats:italic>R</jats:italic> <jats:sub>0</jats:sub> ) was below 1.60, our simulations showed that a prepared response with targeted antivirals would have a high probability of containing the disease. In that case, an antiviral agent stockpile on the order of 100,000 to 1 million courses for treatment and prophylaxis would be sufficient. If pre-vaccination occurred, then targeted antiviral prophylaxis could be effective for containing strains with an <jats:italic>R</jats:italic> <jats:sub>0</jats:sub> as high as 2.1. Combinations of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, pre-vaccination, and quarantine could contain strains with an <jats:italic>R</jats:italic> <jats:sub>0</jats:sub> as high as 2.4. </jats:p>

収録刊行物

  • Science

    Science 309 (5737), 1083-1087, 2005-08-12

    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

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