An introduction to the philosophy of induction and probability
著者
書誌事項
An introduction to the philosophy of induction and probability
Clarendon Press, 1989
- : hbk
- : pbk
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注記
Includes bibliographical references and index
内容説明・目次
内容説明
This book is concerned with two philosophical problems about the gradation of certainty which emerged in the 17th century and which, the author argues, are still alive today. One is concerned with the evaluation of inductive reasoning, whether in science, in jurisprudence or elsewhere; the other with the interpretation of the mathematical calculus of chance. At a non-specialist level, this book investigates both problems and the extent to which they are interconnected. The author aims to explore the diversity of logical structures that are available for judgements of probability, and to explore the rationale for their appropriateness to different contexts of application. Cohen's aim is to face up to the complexity of the underlying philosophical issues rather than to rehearse familiar mathematical findings or statistical procedures.
目次
- Part 1 The origins of the problem: an outline of the issues
- the Baconian tradition in the philosophy of induction
- the rise of Pascalian probability
- the combination of Baconian and Pascalian themes. Part 2 The controversy about the nature of Pascalian probability: some general considerations
- indifference theories
- frequency theories
- propensity theories
- personalist theories
- multi-valued logic theories
- logical relation theories. Part 3 The foundations of pluralism in the analysis of probability: some logical distinctions exploited by differing analyses of Pascalian probability
- the appropriateness of different conceptions of Pascalian probability to different purposes
- the need to supplement Pascalian judgements by non-Pascalian ones
- how are different conceptions of probability possible? Part 4 The Pascalian gradation of ampliative induction: inductive probability under a realist construal
- inductive probability under a range-theoretical construal
- Pascalian gradation for variative induction
- inductive probability under a personalist construal. Part 5 The Baconian gradation of ampliative induction: inductive support by the method of relevant variables
- the logical syntax of the method of relevant variables
- some non-standard interpretations of Baconian logical syntax. Part 6 Four paradoxes about induction: the classical problem of induction
- the paradox of the ravens
- the "grue" paradox
- the lottery paradox.
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