: pbk ISBN 9781853835223
A study of the potentially enormous and devastating health impacts of the global atmospheric changes which are under way. The author uses available knowledge to model future health impacts, including: vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever and schistosomiasis; marine-borne diseases such as cholera and toxic algae; cancers and cataracts from ozone depletion; and cardiovascular and respiratory disorders from higher temperatures and air pollution. The projections in this book, on the global and sub-global scale, as well as the methods used to reach them, are designed to provide information for researchers, policy makers and a wider public.
- An eco-epidemiological modelling approach
- climate change and vector-borne diseases
- modelling malaria as a complex adaptive system
- climate change thermal stress and mortality changes
- the impact of ozone depletion on skin cancer incidence.
'Understanding how complex ecological and climatic change can influence human health is the new challenge before us. The book confronts these multidimensional risk assessments head-on and will catalyse the important interdisciplinary and integrated approach that is the new paradigm now required for environmental and public health research.' Dr JONATHAN PATZ Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health 'This book provides a sturdy foundation for thinking about how best to tackle a varied spectrum of population health hazards posed by different aspects and combinations of global change processes it alsogoes that extra mile by estimating the attributable population burdens of disease or mortality that are likely to result from these aspects of global change. It is heartening to see the results of this mathematical modeling being presented in policy-relevant terms.' From the Foreword by TONY McMICHAEL Health and Climate Change is the first major study of the potentially devastating health impacts of the global atmospheric changes which are under way.
Using the best available data, the author presents models of the most plausible future courses of vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever and schistosomiasis; skin cancer caused by nozone depletion; and cardiovascular and respiratory disorders caused by higher temperatures. Current epidemiological research methods are not well adapted to analysing complex systems influenced by human intervention, or more simple processes calculated to take place within the distant future. Health and Climate Change proposes a new paradigm of integrated eco-epidemiological models for these areas of study. It will be essential reading for those concerned with public health and epidemiology, environmental studies, climate change and development studies. Originally published in 1998
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations List of Figures List of Tables List of Boxes Foreword by Tony McMichael Preface 1. Introduction The Issue Scope and Objectives Outline 2. An Eco-Epidemiological Modelling Approach Introduction Limitations of Conventional Epidemiology Eco-Epidemiological Modelling Discussion 3. Climate Change and Vector-Borne Diseases Introduction The Vectors and Their Diseases Epidemic Potential Climate Effects Malaria Prevalence Climate Scenarios Changes in Potential Risk Areas Changes in Malaria Prevalence Local Estimates: Model Validation Model Limitations and Uncertainties Discussion and Conclusions 4. Modelling Malaria as a Complex Adaptive System Introduction The Genetic Algorithm Modelling Adaptation by Genetic Algorithms Modelling Experiments Discussion and Conclusions 5. Climate Change, Thermal Stress and Morality Changes Introduction Health Impact Assessment Thermal Stress in a Number of Cities Cardiovascular Mortality and Sensitivity to Adaptation Discussion and Conclusions 6. The Impact of Ozone Depletion on Skin Cancer Incidence Introduction Modelling the Cause-Effect Chain Ozone Depletion and Skin Cancer Risk in the Netherlands and Australia Uncertainties Discussion and Conclusions 7. Discussion and Conclusions Introduction Major Findings Future Research lines Epilogue References Index
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