China's democratic future : how it will happen and where it will lead

著者

書誌事項

China's democratic future : how it will happen and where it will lead

Bruce Gilley

Columbia University Press, c2004

  • : cloth

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注記

Includes bibliographical references (p. 281-286) and index

内容説明・目次

内容説明

The end of communist rule in China will be one of the most momentous events of the twenty-first century, sounding the death knell for the Marxist-Leninist experiment and changing the lives of a fifth of humanity. This book provides a likely blow-by-blow account of how the Chinese Communist Party will be removed from power and how a new democracy will be born. In more than half a century of rule, the Chinese Communist Party has turned a poor and benighted China into a moderately well-off and increasingly influential nation. Yet the Party has failed to keep pace with change since stepping aside from daily life in the late-1970s. After nearly a hundred years of frustrating attempts to create a workable political system following the overthrow of the last dynasty, the prospects for democracy in China are better than ever, according to Bruce Gilley. Gilley predicts an elite-led transformation rather than a popular-led overthrow. He profiles the key actors and looks at the response of excluded elites, such as the military, as well as interested parties such as Taiwan and Tibet. He explains how democracy in China will be very "Chinese," even as it will also embody fundamental universal liberal features. He deals with competing interests-regional, sectoral, and class-of China's economy and society under democracy, addressing the pressing concerns of world business. Finally he considers the implications for Asia as well as for the United States. The end of communist rule in China will be one of the most momentous events of the twenty-first century, sounding the death knell for the Marxist-Leninist experiment and changing the lives of a fifth of humanity. This book provides a likely blow-by-blow account of how the Chinese Communist Party will be removed from power and how a new democracy will be born. In more than half a century of rule, the Chinese Communist Party has turned a poor and benighted China into a moderately well-off and increasingly influential nation. Yet the Party has failed to keep pace with change since stepping aside from daily life in the late-1970s. After nearly a hundred years of frustrating attempts to create a workable political system following the overthrow of the last dynasty, the prospects for democracy in China are better than ever, according to Bruce Gilley. Gilley predicts an elite-led transformation rather than a popular-led overthrow. He profiles the key actors and looks at the response of excluded elites, such as the military, as well as interested parties such as Taiwan and Tibet. He explains how democracy in China will be very "Chinese," even as it will also embody fundamental universal liberal features. He deals with competing interests-regional, sectoral, and class-of China's economy and society under democracy, addressing the pressing concerns of world business. Finally he considers the implications for Asia as well as for the United States.

目次

Introduction Part 1: Crisis Democracy and China Democracy's Spread The Struggle for Democracy ( China's Democratic Potential Broken Promises The Republican Failure Mao's China Post-Mao Reforms The Last Days of Dictatorship The Torment of CCP Rule The PRC System A Metaphor for Transition State and Society Sustaining Economic Growth The Social Malaise A Troubled Diplomacy Political Dysfunction Resources for Change Tocqueville's Paradox The Privatization of Economic Life New Ideas New Societies Democratic Diplomacy and US Policy Border Effects and Global Civil Society Political Decompression Part II: Transition Breakdown and Mobilization Predicting Change Gradual Democracy? Metastatic Crisis Popular Mobilization Violence Last Ditchism Collapse? The Eve of Transition Democratic Breakthrough Extrication or Overthrow? The Heroes of Retreat The Pact Ending the PRC The Immediate The Interim Regime Sudden Politicization International Reaction Part III: Consolidation The Political Challenge Will Democracy Fail? Legacies and Choices New Institutions Federalism Secession The First Election Rights and Interests Rights: Threats and Safeguards Towards Consolidation Political Life Local Politics and Hong Kong Refurbishing Economic and Social Life The Struggle for Interests Growth and Development Social Welfare Regional Interests A Free Society Dealing With History A Changed International Role Democratic Peace Transitional Diplomacy Relations With the U.S. Relations with Asia Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang Conclusion References

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