Trust and mistrust in international relations


Trust and mistrust in international relations

Andrew H. Kydd

Princeton University Press, 2007, c2005

  • : pbk

大学図書館所蔵 件 / 6



"Third printing, and first paperback printing, 2007"--T.p. verso

Includes bibliographical references (p. [257]-277) and index



The difference between war and peace can be a matter of trust. States that trust each other can cooperate and remain at peace. States that mistrust each other enough can wage preventive wars, attacking now in fear that the other side will attack in the future. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Kydd develops a theory of trust in international relations and applies it to the Cold War. Grounded in a realist tradition but arriving at conclusions very different from current realist approaches, this theory is the first systematic game theoretic approach to trust in international relations, and is also the first to explicitly consider how we as external observers should make inferences about the trustworthiness of states. Kydd makes three major claims. First, while trustworthy states may enter conflict, when we see conflict we should become more convinced that the states involved are untrustworthy. Second, strong states, traditionally thought to promote cooperation, can do so only if they are relatively trustworthy. Third, even states that strongly mistrust each other can reassure each other and cooperate provided they are trustworthy. The book's historical chapters focus on the growing mistrust at the beginning of the Cold War. Contrary to the common view that both sides were willing to compromise but failed because of mistrust, Kydd argues that most of the mistrust in the Cold War was justified, because the Soviets were not trustworthy.


List of Figures xiList of Tables xiiiAcknowledgments xvPART I Trust and International RelationsCHAPTER 1: Introduction 3Defining Trust 6Trust and International Relations 12Methodology 22A Road Map 25Conclusion 26CHAPTER 2: Trust and the Security Dilemma 28The Security Dilemma Game 29Introducing Uncertainty 34Equilibria with Uncertainty 36Achieving Cooperation 38The Effects of Cooperation and Noncooperation 41Conclusion 44Appendix 45PART II Fear and the Origins of the Cold WarCHAPTER 3: The Spiral of Fear 49The Spiral Model 50The Spiral Game 52Equilibria in the Spiral Game 59Defection and Fear 63The External Observer's Perspective 68Conclusion 77Appendix 77CHAPTER 4: The Origins of Mistrust: 1945-50 79Explaining the Origins of the Cold War 80Setting the Stage: Motivations and Beliefs in 1945 87The Fate of Poland 92Bulgaria and Romania 98The Iranian Crisis 101The Turkish Crisis 105The Truman Doctrine 108Hungary and Czechoslovakia 110The Korean War 113Conclusion 115PART III European Cooperation and the Rebirth of GermanyCHAPTER 5: Trust, Hegemony, and Cooperation 119Multilateral Cooperation 120The Multilateral Trust Game 123Equilibria in the Game 132The Payoffs and Cooperation 134Geography and Mistrust 136Hegemony and Cooperation 137Conclusion 139Appendix 140CHAPTER 6: European Cooperation and Germany, 1945-55 142Explaining European Cooperation 143The Road to Bizonia 149The Origins of the Western Bloc: 1947 156The Brussels Pact and the London Accords 162The Birth of NATO and West Germany 165German Rearmament 168The Death of the EDC and the NATO Solution 173The Perspectives Revisited 177Conclusion 178PART IV Reassurance and the End of the Cold WarCHAPTER 7: Reassurance 183Reassurance in International Relations 184The Reassurance Game 188Equilibria in the Reassurance Game 190Costly Signals versus Cheap Talk 197The Size of the Signal 198When Reassurance Works 200Conclusion 204Appendix 205CHAPTER 8: The End of the Cold War: 1985-91 214Explaining the End of the Cold War 215New Thinking before 1985 223The Advent of Gorbachev 225The INF Treaty 227Afghanistan, Liberalization, and the UN Speech 230The Sinatra Doctrine 234Less Socialism, More Unity 237The End of the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire 240The Depth of Trust 242Conclusion 244PART V Trust and Mistrust in the Post-Cold War EraCHAPTER 9: Conclusion 247The Solitary Superpower 248The Post-Cold War Decade 251The Twenty-first Century 252Bibliography 257Index 279

「Nielsen BookData」 より


  • ISBN
    • 9780691133881
  • LCCN
  • 出版国コード
  • タイトル言語コード
  • 本文言語コード
  • 出版地
    Princeton, N.J.
  • ページ数/冊数
    xvi, 284 p.
  • 大きさ
    24 cm
  • 分類
  • 件名