A treatise on probability
Author(s)
Bibliographic Information
A treatise on probability
（The collected writings of John Maynard Keynes, v. 8）
Macmillan , Cambridge University Press for Royal Economic Society, 1988
- : pbk
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Note
Includes bibliographical references (p. 471-506) and index
Description and Table of Contents
Description
Keynes sought to do for probable and therefore inductive reasoning, what Whitehead and Russell had done for mathematical and logical reasoning. His "Treatise on Probability" included in this volume was begun as a fellowship dissertation at Cambridge before World War I.
Table of Contents
Part 1 Fundamental ideas: the meaning of probability - probability in relation to the theory of knowledge - the measurement of probabilities - the principle of indifference - other methods of determining probabilities - the weight of arguments - historical retrospect - the frequency theory of probability - the constructive theory of part 1 summarized. Part 2 Fundamental theorems: introductory - the theory of groups, with special reference to logical consistence, inference, and logical priority - the definitions and axioms of inference and probability - the fundamental theorems of probable inference - numerical measurement and approximation of probabilities - observations on the theorems of chapter 14 and their developments, including testimony - some problems in inverse probability, including averages. Part 3 Induction and analogy: introduction - the nature of argument by analogy - the value of multiplication of instances, or pure induction - the nature of inductive argument continued - the justification of these methods - some historical notes on induction - notes on part 3. Part 4 Some philosophical applications of probability: the meanings of objective chance, and of randomness - some problems arising out of the discussion of change - the application of probability to conduct. Part 5 The foundations of statistical inference: the nature of statistical inference - the law of great numbers - the use of a priori probabilities for the prediction of statistical frequency - the mathematical use of statistical frequencies for the determination of probability a posteriori - the inversion of Bernoulli's theorem - the inductive use of statistical frequencies for the determination of probability a posteriori - outline of a constructive theory.
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