Search Results 1-20 of 275

  • Real-time Forecasting of Co-evolving Epidemics  [in Japanese]

    木村 輔 , 松原 靖子 , 川畑 光希 , 櫻井 保志

    本論文では,大規模疫病データのための高速予測手法であるEpiCastについて述べる.EpiCastは,様々な地域の大規模疫病データストリームが与えられたときに,その中から疫病の特徴を表現,要約,共有し,長期的かつ継続的に将来の感染者数予測を行う.提案手法は(a)疫病の複雑な拡散過程を非線形モデルで表現し,(b)それらの中に含まれる重要な特徴を各地域で共有し,適切なモデルを選択することで,感染拡大予 …

    情報処理学会論文誌データベース(TOD) 14(2), 10-19, 2021-04-13

    IPSJ 

  • An Analysis of Online Teaching Models for Oral Chinese Language Courses during a Period of Epidemic Prevention and Control

    吴 菲

    JISRD : journal of international studies and regional development (12), 41-45, 2021

  • Deterministic epidemic modeling of future botnet malware with a contact process

    Miura Hideyoshi , Kimura Tomotaka , Hirata Kouji

    … <p>This paper proposes deterministic epidemic modeling of future botnet malware named self-evolving botnets, assuming a contact process. … The proposed epidemic model represents their infection dynamics on an overlay network consisting of hosts. … Through numerical calculations, we show that the proposed epidemic model well approximates the infection spreading in short time.</p> …

    IEICE Communications Express, 2021

    J-STAGE 

  • Application of long-term collected data for conservation: Spatio-temporal patterns of mortality in Japanese serow

    IKUSHIMA Shiori , ANDO Masaki , ASANO Makoto , SUZUKI Masatsugu

    … A state space model was used to analyze the time series for the monthly mortalities, and kernel estimation was used for the spatial distribution of the parapoxvirus infection. … The state space model showed moderate increases in monthly mortalities over time and a seasonal variation with the highest level in spring and lowest in winter. …

    Journal of Veterinary Medical Science 83(2), 349-357, 2021

    J-STAGE 

  • Developing a new method to measure daily steps through iPhone Health App and an Internet survey: a case study of temporal changes of step counts before and after the declaration of a state of emergency against the epidemic of COVID-19 in Japan  [in Japanese]

    Adachi Hiroki M. , Hanibuchi Tomoya , Nagata Shohei , Amagasa Shiho , Inoue Shigeru , Nakaya Tomoki

    <b>目的</b>:本研究では,iPhoneのヘルスケアアプリのスクリーンショット画像から日常生活上の歩数を得る遡及的調査方法を開発した。インターネット調査を利用し,COVID-19の緊急事態宣言下での歩数変化を例として本調査方法の実用性の検討を本研究の目的とした。<br><b>方法</b>:調査会社の登録モニター集団から日本全国に居住す …

    Research in Exercise Epidemiology, 2021

    J-STAGE 

  • An Analysis of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Japan Using a Logistic Model

    Miyamoto Kuniaki

    … it is difficult to set them up appropriately, especially during new epidemic cases such as COVID-19. … If we can limit the purpose of analysis to understand current epidemic situations, then it would be better to use simple models and limit the number of parameters. …

    Journal of Disaster Research 16(1), 12-15, 2021

    J-STAGE 

  • Predictive Models and Analysis of Peak and Flatten Curve Values of CoVID-19 Cases in India

    Bhatnagar Paras , Kaura Shivendra , Rajan Sanjeev

    … The coronavirus epidemic caused announcing emergency cases in India. … A mathematical model to predict the new deceased cases corresponding infected cases in a practical scenario is proposed. … An approximate prediction of mortality corresponding to new predicted cases can be easily performed using the proposed model. … The model has also been verified in different countries to identify the significance of the model. …

    Evergreen 7(4), 458-467, 2020-12

    IR  DOI 

  • Study on Solid Desiccant-Based Air-Conditioning for Wet-Markets

    Muhammad N. Ashraf , Riaz Mahmood , Muhammad H. Mahmood , Miyazaki Takahiko , Sultan Muhammad , Khalid Muhammad , Zahid M. Khan

    … The higher relative humidity inside wet-markets results in the growth of pathogenic micro-organisms that affect qualitative and nutritive attributes of the products prompting epidemic health problems to the occupants as well as consumers. … The model of Beccali was used for performance investigation of the desiccant wheel while MEC and heat exchanger were evaluated by governing equations from literature. …

    Proceedings of International Exchange and Innovation Conference on Engineering & Sciences (IEICES) (6), 122-127, 2020-10-22

    IR  DOI 

  • Possible effects of mixed prevention strategy for COVID-19 epidemic: massive testing, quarantine and social distancing

    Kuniya Toshikazu , Inaba Hisashi

    … Methods: In this paper, we construct a mathematical model and discuss the effect of massive testing with quarantine, which would be less likely to affect the social and economic systems, and its efficacy has been proved in South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and Hong Kong. …

    AIMS Public Health 7(3), 490-503, 2020-07-06

    IR 

  • Estimating the Risk of COVID-19 Death During the Course of the Outbreak in Korea, February–May 2020

    Shim Eunha , Mizumoto Kenji , Choi Wongyeong , Chowell Gerardo

    … Results: Our model-based crude CFR fitted the observed data well throughout the course of the epidemic except for the very early stage in Gyeongsangbuk-do; …

    Journal of Clinical Medicine 9(6), 2020-06

    IR 

  • Parameter estimation and prediction for coronavirus disease outbreak 2019 (COVID-19) in Algeria

    Bentout Soufiane , Chekroun Abdennasser , Kuniya Toshikazu

    … To overcome this difficult period and a catastrophic scenario, a model-based prediction of the possible epidemic peak and size of COVID-19 in Algeria is required. … Methods: We are concerned with a classical epidemic model of susceptible, exposed, infected and removed (SEIR) population dynamics. …

    AIMS Public Health 7(2), 306-318, 2020-05-22

    IR 

  • A Simulation on Potential Secondary Spread of Novel Coronavirus in an Exported Country Using a Stochastic Epidemic SEIR Model

    Iwata Kentaro , Miyakoshi Chisato

    … Simulations using stochastic SEIR model were conducted, assuming one patient was imported to a community. …

    Journal of Clinical Medicine 9(4), 944, 2020-04

    IR 

  • Prediction of the Epidemic Peak of Coronavirus Disease in Japan, 2020

    Kuniya Toshikazu

    … The purpose of this study is to give a prediction of the epidemic peak for COVID-19 in Japan by using the real-time data from 15 January to 29 February 2020. … Taking into account the uncertainty due to the incomplete identification of infective population, we apply the well-known SEIR compartmental model for the prediction. …

    Journal of Clinical Medicine 9(3), 789, 2020-03

    IR 

  • McNeil's Model and Pestilence in Ancient Japan  [in Japanese]

    本庄 総子

    … And in addition, when an epidemic struck, areas within the capital with the greatest population density were severely struck, and the Kinki region around the capital was struck next. … Generally speaking, it has often been the case that outbreaks of an epidemic are triggered by lowered levels ofresistance due to famine, but in the case of ancient Japan, it was frequently the case that famine brought on epidemic instead. …

    史林 = The Journal of history 103(1), 7-40, 2020-01

    IR  DOI 

  • Analysis of a reaction-diffusion cholera epidemic model in a spatially heterogeneous environment

    Wang Jinliang , Xie Fanglin , Kuniya Toshikazu

    Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation (80), 104951, 2020-01

    IR 

  • Data-driven Simulation for Reducing COVID-19 Epidemic Spreads and Data Quality  [in Japanese]

    SATO Akihiro

    … This article introduces the method for estimating the reduction target from numerical simulation based on a delayed stochastic SIR model. …

    Journal of The Japanese Society for Quality Control 50(4), 292-299, 2020

    J-STAGE 

  • Transmission Network of Measles During the Yamagata Outbreak in Japan, 2017

    Kobayashi Tetsuro , Nishiura Hiroshi

    … The first model relied on the temporal distribution for date of illness onset for cases, and a generation-dependent model was applied to the data. … Another model focused on the transmission network. … Using a generation-dependent model (assuming three generations other than the index case), the reproduction number (<i>R</i>) over generations 0, 1, and 2 were 25.3, 1.3, and < …

    Journal of Epidemiology, 2020

    J-STAGE 

  • Predicting intervention effect for COVID-19 in Japan: state space modeling approach

    Kobayashi Genya , Sugasawa Shonosuke , Tamae Hiromasa , Ozu Takayuki

    … This study analyzes the real time data from March 1 to April 22, 2020 by adopting a sophisticated statistical modeling based on the state space model combined with the well-known susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. … The model estimation and forecasting are conducted using the Bayesian methodology. …

    BioScience Trends 14(3), 174-181, 2020

    J-STAGE 

  • Analysis of viral music diffusion with epidemic model  [in Japanese]

    TAKEUCHI Makoto

    <p>Human dynamics等の分野において、情報拡散現象は主要な研究テーマの1つである。本研究では、その中でも特にメディアコンテンツの消費を伴う拡散現象を対象に、感染症モデルとしてSEISモデルを用いてモデリングし、その拡散現象の分析を行った。コンテンツの消費を伴う拡散現象は、コンテンツの消費と、共有の2つの異なる行動を含んでおり、それらを別々に表現できるモデルとしてSEISモ …

    Proceedings of the Annual Conference of JSAI JSAI2020(0), 2E6GS505-2E6GS505, 2020

    J-STAGE 

  • Evaluation of the effect of the state of emergency for the first wave of COVID-19 in Japan

    Kuniya Toshikazu

    In this paper, we evaluate the effect of the state of emergency for the first wave of COVID-19 in Japan, 2020 from the viewpoint of mathematical modelling. In Japan, it was announced during the period …

    Infectious Disease Modelling (5), 580-587, 2020

    IR 

Page Top