Sunspot variability and an attempt to predict solar cycle 23 by adaptive filtering

• Rangarajan G. K.

  Indian Institute of Geomagnetism

Abstract

The series of annual mean relative sunspot numbers (Rz) for 1749-1996 is subjected to the recently developed methodology of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). This technique also enables data-adaptive filtering of the individual spectral components. Low order autoregressive modelling of the components are combined to provide a basis for predicting the solar cycle 23. The R_z series is largely dominated by a doublet with periods 11.13 and 10.35 yr. close to the nominal solar cycle periodicity, a longer period variation (-110 yr.) which is the envelope of the amplitude maxima and two clusters of periodicities centred around 8 yr. and 5.5 yr. The solar magnetic cycle has no detectable component. The predicted maximum for cycle 23 will have a magnitude of -130 and the epoch of maximum is expected between late 2000 A.D. and early 2001 A.D.

Journal

• Earth, Planets and Space

  Earth, Planets and Space 50 (2), 91-100, 1998

  Society of Geomagnetism and Earth, Planetary and Space Sciences, The Seismological Society of Japan, The Volcanological Society of Japan , The Geodetic Society of Japan , The Japanese Society for Planetary Sciences

Keywords

• Space and Planetary Science
• Geology

Details

• CRID: 1390282681487666944
• NII Article ID: 10002205737
• NII Article ID: 130003955895
• NII Book ID: AA11211921
• DOI: 10.1186/bf03352090
• ISSN: 18805981
• ISSN: 13438832
• Web Site: https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/BF03352090.pdf
• Web Site: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/BF03352090/fulltext.html
• Web Site: http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/BF03352090
• Text Lang: en
• Data Source:
  • JaLC
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
• Abstract License Flag: Disallowed