Numerical estimation of the permafrost variation on the Daisetsu Mountains,Hokkaido,since the Last Glacial Maximum.

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  • 北海道・大雪山における最終氷期以降の永久凍土の厚さの変化の推定
  • ホッカイドウ ダイセツザン ニ オケル サイシュウ ヒョウキ イコウ ノ エイ

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Abstract

The objective of this study is to estimate the response of the permafrost at the Daisetsu Mountains, central Hokkaido to a continuous climatic change. A one-dimensional, nonsteady state, heat conduction model with phase change is used to calculate the change of permafrost thickness during the last 20, 000 years. The result of simulation shows that the permafrost responded quickly to the surface temperature change and it has remained without thaw since the Last Glacial Maximum. The minimum permafrost thickness is estimated at 11.5 m at about 5 kyr B. P. and reached to 30.1 m at present. The simulation also indicates that the permafrost thickness is sensitive to soil water content and ground heat flow.

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