土石流の事例解析と発生予測法の一試案

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書誌事項

タイトル別名
  • A Case Study and an Attempt to Predict Debris Flow Occurrence
  • ドセキリュウ ノ ジレイ カイセキ ト ハッセイ ヨソクホウ ノ イチシアン

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抄録

On July 23, 1982, 299 human lives were lost in Nagasaki prefecture due to the localized heavy rainfall, nearly 90% of which were due to sediment disaster. Especially, nearly half of them were lost due to debris flow which had not been experienced for about 100 years in Nagasaki city.<br>It is important not only to establish a risk evaluation method but also to develop a prediction method for debris flow occurrence more precisely than before.<br>In this paper, the authors spot only upon the debris flow disaster whose prevention is very difficult due to its unforeseenity and its gigantic power to destory checkdams and houses and so forth.<br>We first try to investigate a typical debris flow which occurred at Yamanokami basin in Kamitoisu-cho, Nagasaki on July 23, 1982 by some accomplished field approaches in order to clarify the actual flow feature as a contribution to the regional disaster planning.<br>We next describe how to evaluate the risk of debris flow occurrence by using both the mechanical model proposed by Takahashi et al and Hayashi's quantification theories class II and III. And we propose a ‘weighted risk evaluation method’ which can take account for each factor (items) 's degree of contribution to occurrence of debris flow. It can be used if an analytical area would have been suffered from debris flows before. We show some applications to two areas for study in Nagasaki city.<br>Finally, we describe an attempt to develop a prediction method for debris flow occurrence by considering the risk weight to the mean precipitation criterion in Nagasaki city based on each basin's risk value.

収録刊行物

  • 砂防学会誌

    砂防学会誌 41 (5), 3-13, 1989

    Japan Society of Erosion Control Engineering

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